A Corporate Crisis consumes most CEOs. Are you prepared for yours?
According to Oxford Metrica, a strategic advisory firm, every company today faces an 82% chance of experiencing a Corporate Disaster within any 5-year period.
They define a Corporate Disaster as an event that results in a company losing 20% of its Market Value.
So if you believe them – and they are a rigorous analytics company that is respected around the world, so I think you can – your company will experience a sudden and dramatic loss of your company’s Market Value in the near future.
According to another study by the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, a sudden Stock Price drop is not just a short-term problem – it’s a long-term problem.
On average, it takes 80 weeks for a company’s Stock Price to recover after a sudden price drop – that’s 1½ years before the company’s Stock Price recovers to its original value.
If the Stock price fall is the result of Earnings Risk, recovery takes longer: 93 weeks.
If it’s the result of Acquisition Risk, it’s 121 weeks.
If it’s Industry Risk, it’s 137 weeks.
And if it’s Competition Risk, the recovery time is more than 3 years – or 162 weeks.
They also analysed the recovery time by risk, across industries, and the situation is much more extreme for the IT, Utilities and Healthcare sectors.
So the brutal conclusion is this:
- Your company will probably experience a Corporate Disaster that could result in a sudden 20% loss of Market Value, sometime in the next 5 years.
- After this event, it could take 1½ years on average for your Stock price to recover – maybe more.
Equilar calculates that the average S&P 500 CEO serves just 7.4 years in charge of their company – and just 6.0 years at the median.
So it’s likely that your imminent Corporate Disaster will dominate your tenure.
But recent research has shown how companies with strong Corporate Reputations are less affected by Corporate Crises, and recover from their Crises faster.
Reputation is a Research and Strategy Consulting Firm that advises CEOs and Boards of Public Companies how to achieve Fair Valuation for their Company’s Stock.